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Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Betting. Show all posts

Sports Betting - Why Online Sports Betting Is Getting Popular

The Sports betting has increased the interest in the sports many times these days. Learning how to start in the sports betting is quite easy also as most of this information on odds is already being published by the different magazines and sites regularly. The sports commentators are also favoring the different sides and players also, taking advantage of this all information and gaining some prize from this all seems quite easy if you think about it.

The sports betting are quite interesting and versatile also. You can place your bet on almost any sports from horse racing to even NFL these days. The betting is regular business that is governed by the different bodies that govern this business, so there is no dark side of this whole business apparently.

Once you start it your view on sport will start to change too, of course after this you start to take it more seriously and see the strength of different players and their best achievements can transfer some money alongside the pleasure of being a simple fan to you also..

Sports is huge business, most of these players are earning millions of dollars each year if you earn a little of this billion dollar industry by showing your knowledge there's nothing wrong in there is it. The Sport books are maintained in almost every city and one can even enjoy taking part in this online too so distance and being away is not an issue if you wish to take part in this.

The process of reading the sports betting odds is quite simple; if you know the rules of different sports that you like, just find the competitive offers that are being floated by the various sports books. There are few ways of placing these odds, which are quite simple to understand. If you are starting the try taking simple sports betting rather than the fractional one as the later tend to be too precise and often is difficult.


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Conservative Betting for College Football Picks

Great risks would equate to large losses and deficits. That is why the person should eliminate risks when betting money on football games. Risks can be attributed to the recklessness, greed and irresponsibility of the person placing money. People who guess and do not exert effort into investigating the chances of a team to win would surely lose in the long term. In order to assure success, people should be conservative and cautious when placing bets. The money should only be released once the person is a hundred percent sure that the chosen football team would win the game. This is necessary when choosing the best college football pick.

Conservative betting requires people to make safe choices regardless of the odds and positive rating of the team. This can be done by comprehensively examining every bit of information involving the teams competing in the game. A lot of clues and hints can be found to define the chances of a team to win. The people should be very receptive and observant when it comes to choosing teams. This is crucial since a single piece of information overlooked could cause a team to lose. People should constantly conduct research in order to find the key data that would decide the game. People who are reckless and put money on any team they desire would always fail.

College football is full of surprises and unexpected events. A single play could change the direction of the game. The plays, condition of the players and other factors which could make a difference should be identified. Many college football teams have secret plays which are only used during playoffs, semis and finals games. People should choose the teams which have better plays since it would assure their success in the long term. They would be prepared to face any situation and condition which can be encountered in the games. Some of the plays used by coaches can be found in the internet. People can view the plays and check if it would be effective.

Once the person has decided on a pick, he should remain conservative and careful. Conservative betting is all about predicting losses. The people should keep track of the money being released. Everybody should understand that betting involves tremendous risks. Sooner or later, the person would lose which would translate to large deficits. That is why the person should use money systematically. The money placed on a bet should be modulated depending on the chances of winning. If the team is facing significant risks, the person should avoid this and bet on the opposing teams. The person should only put money on a team if the benefits would outweigh the risks.

Choosing the best college football pick should be accomplished conservatively. This is necessary since people could lose large amounts of money in the process. It is better to be safe and secure than sorry. Winning in the long term should be done properly by using the best strategy possible. This is the only way to survive and earn from wagers.


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Is Your NFL Handicapper Turning Your Betting Into an Invalid?

Games are about chances and odds as much as it is about skill and talent. No matter how good the team, how solid is its cohesion and chemistry, or how skilled its roster of players and its coach and his staff are, upsets happen. It could be an injury that happens before or during the game that sidelines a key player. It could be that the underdogs are having a good day while the top card are on an off night. These and many other factors are what makes every game, despite the proven dominance of one team, an open question especially in the NFL.

An NFL handicapper is supposed to give a game this level of parity, otherwise everyone would be betting on the favorites. The handicap is supposed to tell you that, even if a team is favored to win this one, you can still bet on the underdogs because there's this chance, as shown by the handicap number on the favored guys, that the top dogs might not play as well as they hoped. The game could be close, and the favorites could still win it, but you win too if you bet on the underdogs and the favored team didn't make the handicap cut.

Or, let's say the handicap is a big, solid, number. Isn't that supposed to tell you, especially if you're not feeling all that... adventurous today, that it's safe to bet on the favorites? They're not expected to play bad today, and there's no way the underdogs can come close. That's a pretty big figure your NFL handicapper gave, after all, so you should feel safe betting on them.

But what if your NFL handicapper is the one cramping your game? What if, instead of giving you good odds so you can have an excellent chance of winning, your handicapper actually, well... handicaps your betting? Instead of your handicapper helping cruise your bet to the end zone like a prime running back on all cylinders, it hobbles you like a career-ending tackle that breaks a bone or two in a very wrong way.

If that last is how you feel over your NFL handicapper, maybe it's time for you to get one that doesn't end up turning your bets into invalids but gets you winnings. These are the kinds of NFL betting handicaps that are made by real experts who know the ins and outs of the game, and whose knowledge and experience is backed up by solid, updated stats on players and coaches, in-depth analysis of plays and performances, and who have that key inside track into what's happening in the league.

Handicaps are not supposed to hobble your betting. You want your handicaps to work for you and bring that bet to a satisfying touchdown and not limp it around like someone with one bad leg and just waiting for a big, painful take down. And the only real way for you to ensure that your NFL handicapper consistently gets your betting ball past the line is to get that proven system that really works. One that delivers. One that makes you win.


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How to Succeed in Betting on the 2011 March Madness

The 2011 march madness basketball event is one of the most well known and watched inter college competition around the country. Thousands of colleges all over the country compete for the championship trophy. The wagering and betting behind the March Madness event is a very large industry involving millions of people. Majority are students, local residents and people who are supporting their state Universities and Colleges. A lot of casinos, online betting sites and pages are offering different betting schemes for the March madness events. Dozens of different betting games and formats are available. People should choose the best betting game that would be suitable to them.

Wagering money in the March madness basketball games is very tricky since the events that would unfold during the game is very hard to predict. Most of the time, injuries, ejections and other unforeseen events occur which would reduce the chances of a person to win. In order to predict the outcome, the person should thoroughly research and evaluate the teams participating in games. All the statistics, past games and injury rate should be noted before placing any money on a team. This is very important to increase one's chances of winning. Many people lose because they only rely on their gut feeling when placing bets.

The average wins, losses, score, rebounds, assists and other significant statistical value attributed to the teams should be compared. This would give the person an idea of the possible outcome which could be encountered. People should use specialized betting software and programs that would assist people how to bet properly. Simulation software is one of the best ways to predict a game. The simulation software would use actual statistical data and facts. It is similar to computer games since the data would be used to predict how the players would perform. The scores, rebounds, assists and other stats would be used to show how the players would deal with the other team. All the data can be assessed in different ways. The programs and software available can be used to analyze and evaluate data accurately.

The use of the internet is also essential to the success of people betting money. The internet is full of useful and reliable information that would be relevant to the game. People should know where to look. Online rankings of the different teams participating in the NCAA games can be found. This would help people decide which teams to pick. The different internet sites dedicated to the specific teams are full of useful information. It would give them a hint and clue of the possible issues that would be faced by the team on the actual games.

The 2011 march madness is a good way to earn money if the people establish the proper picks. There are different ways to choose picks. Software and programs are available which can be used to evaluate the data accurately. Different sources of information can also be used to choose winning teams. In order to succeed in the long term, people should know which strategies would be effective.


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The Fundamentals of Effective Sports Betting

A lot of people do not know it, but the fact is that a huge number of players in any game often lose. This kind of set-up is normal of course; if everyone wins at gambling, then the business would have died long ago. If the income of any gambling establishment were to go down even by a small amount, then the sport bookies would go and look for better opportunities elsewhere. So in order to make money out of sport betting, you need to be in the small group of winners, and to do that you need to play smart.

Another fact when it comes to any sporting event is that most of the players would like to stick to a betting system that is unlikely to lose, or if it does, they'll lose only a small amount of money. In a failsafe system, more players are able to win in the games. The downside is that the pot is divided among more people, making the winnings smaller. This is a good technique to use if you're just a beginner at sports betting but if you have been doing this a lot of times already, then it starts to get boring.

In order to win and make a bigger profit in betting on sporting events, you only need to make a simple move, which is rather obvious if you think about it: change to a betting system that would likely earn you more money. Here's an example: since a lot of people go for a betting system like the point spread, you will be able to make a lot of money by simply betting high at the right time. Try to predict what the winning trend of every sports game you bet on. If you know when to place your bets, then the chances of you making a profit will definitely increase.

People think that they can win in gambling every day. If this were true, then casinos and other gambling establishments would have gone bankrupt a long time ago. But if you just remember the fundamentals of effective sports betting, you would still lose but only sometimes and not as bad.


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How to Remove Limits From Football Betting in Five Easy Steps

1 Find Your Constants

Firstly, with any kind of investment or gambling venture like football betting you need your constants. Two of these are investment (initial amount can afford to lose) and time spent on your methods. They are not the only considerations but they are a good starting point.

2 Plan it out

You need to plan your system properly and Trend Analysis will be an important part. But you will gradually build different constants into your system. Bit by bit you can start freeing yourself to get the best out of it and start football gambling like the pros.

3 Test Them Out

When picking method or system in football betting make sure you have many that you have tried and tested. Call this your portfolio and be ready to switch and change depending upon how the football season pans out. By being able to use or adapt to other systems quickly means that you're not risking entirely on one thing and spreading your options as with stockbrokers. Whilst on the flip side this may also dilute the amount you make but at least your not losing lots in the first place.

4 Keeping Records

Keeps records of every bet, profit loss and your staking plan. With all successful ventures and football betting should be no different if you're taking it seriously. You need to be able to look at how your systems are doing and if the methods need tweaking, changing or stopping completely. Having the figures to hand is important and being able to keep your books in order allows you to make educated changes within your plans before you lose too much..

5 Shop Around Online Betting Sites

Now there are plenty of bookmakers on the internet often offering monthly cash incentives you should be signing up to or at least be ready to sign up when your regular bookmaker isn't giving the same odds. This will ensure that you get the best odds when putting your bet on and the more you sign up to the more betting options you have. Word of warning the cash incentives are to get people using their services and they do ban people if they don't see a good return on the cash incentive. When value betting it is best to have many bookmakers ready to use as odds can vary quite drastically even foreign ones as long as they allow you and you are sure you can get hold of your winnings.

Start keeping records from day one and make sure you don't get sucked into these football betting system that guarantees you to be in profit. No one can give these guarantees and they usually want your money. There are plenty of betting methods out there that will turn over a profit normally but even these have bad periods when teams have congestion on matches for example. Enjoy but keep a level head when football betting.


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Professional Poker Player Transition to Sports Betting - Where's the +EV in Horse Racing Systems?

EV or Expected Value is a widely used term in poker terminology to determine if the outcome of a play is +, 0 or - in terms of profitability. This article is aimed for Poker Players who also like to punt on UK and Irish horse racing. It never ceases to amaze me how many good poker players are terrible at betting on horse racing. If they can spend so much time on their poker game then why not also put in the effort when placing a bet to ensure that you have the most +EV decision that you can possibly make with all the information at hand. The title of the post is actually a small bit misleading as I personally believe that all horse racing systems are doomed and the way to consistently profit at betting on horse racing is to have a horse racing method not a system.

The following article will lay the ground work for anyone who wants to start taking their punting to the next level. There is no better satisfaction then spending an hour or two analysing a race and 1 horse just stands head and shoulders above the rest when you compare all the different factors that I will explain below. Of course the toughest part is having the discipline to only wait for when these such occasions occur when placing a bet, and some times, this may mean you do not bet for up to a month. (This may help explain why I moved into playing poker from sports betting as the results of your actions are known instantaneously, and you can play a game anytime of any day). I also think you can compare a MTT player to a professional sports bettor - you can go long periods without a win and then score a few big results and then rinse and repeat and hopefully over the course of the year you will have been profitable.

1. You must specialise. All the most profitable professional sports bettors pick not only 1 sport but only a small niche in that sport. Patrick Veitch, who has won over 10 million punting on horse racing in the UK only bets on UK flat racing. He even has a massive team of researchers who do a lot of the work for him, but he as he also works 18 hours days during the flat season he is naturally burnt out by the end of the season.

For the beginner though, what I mean by specialise is concentrate on an area of horse racing where you can get the most information. Information is power so unless you own a shed load of 2 year old horses or are the nephew of Aidan O Brein, there is no point in specialising in 2 year old horse races as you just wont have enough information to go on. Therefore it makes more sense to specialise on handicap races, where each horse in the race must of least have run 3 times to qualify but mainly are run by the same horses year in, year out until they are retired.

The best races then to specialise in are 4 year old plus handicaps in flat and national hunt racing as you have the most information available and you can start to see patterns in horses and therefore pick out some very +EV selections when you have spotted this pattern and the majority of the racing public haven't. This is the bread and butter of successful punting, going against the crowd.

Personally I used to specialise in 4 year old plus UK flat handicaps in the summer, and UK and Irish National Hunt handicap chases and hurdles in the Winter.

2. In your specialised area, when you select a race to analyse, you must go through every horse in the race to develop a shortlist. Below are my 5 essential criteria that every horse must have when you are placing a bet.

a) Going - The horse must be proven on going conditions.

b) Distance - The horse must be proven on the trip

c) Course Type - The horse must be proven on similar type of course

d) Fitness - The horse must have shown that it can operate at optimal levels since its last number of days off the track.

e) Class - The horse must have either won at the class he is currently competing in before or else gave a very good showing in a previous race at the similar or higher class level.

Going and Distance

With regard to going and distance and to a lesser extent course type, I will not fully discount a horse who has never raced on the going if he has extremely good sire stats (15% + strike rate) however I would always give precedence to another horse in a race who has won on for example soft going compared to a horse who has never raced on soft but has sire stats of 18% strike rate for soft going conditions.

With distance, I would also use sire stats if a horse is moving up or down in trip by 1 furlong on the flat, and 2 furlongs in national hunt. With experience, you can tell by looking at a race if a horses needs the extra trip or not and the sire stats can be a great way to back up that visual piece of information.

Course Type

This often overlooked by the general racing public. The best thing about UK and Irish racing is the different types of race courses you will encounter. Cheltenham (left-handed, galloping, undulating and testing track with stiff fences) is totally different to Stratford (left Handed, flat & Sharp) as it is to Sandown (right-handed, galloping, testing track)

A horse who has won twice in Cheltenham will probably never win a race at Stratford and vice versa. Bigger sized horses are more suited to galloping tracks as they can take the turns easier and can maintain a strong galloping pace for longer whereas a smaller sized horse is better suited to sharp tracks (i.e less than 10 furlongs) as most of the running will be going around bends and therefore the bigger horses will not be able to maintain their top galloping speed for long on the stretches.

Also some horses can only run to their best at left handed courses and vice versa. You would actually wonder why trainers persist to run horses which clearly will not win on a certain turning race track, but then you realise by doing this, they will get their Official rating down as horse will appear to be trying but will be hanging left or right the whole way through. You have to be aware that trainers will be trying to manipulate the handicapper a lot of the times in the lower grade races by running horses on unsuitable ground, at the wrong distance, on the wrong course type, or running the horse with a different style during the race all to try and reduce their rating so that they can set up a better chance for themselves to win in the future at a decent price.

I love Cheltenham race meet in March for the simple fact, the course is a stiff testing course which straight away rules out a lot of other horses in the race as they just cant handle it, the grade of racing and pirze money on offer means that everyone is trying to win, and you can nearly always guarantee what the going will be. Therefore if you just use the criteria above and select horses who are proven on the 5 factors (and this applies to the non handicap graded races too, you will see huge profits)

Fitness

To determine a horses fitness, you must look at its previous patterns of how it performed when it returns after a certain number of days off the track. The beauty of handicap races is you have loads of past information to go on and you can see if a horse is 0-5 when returning after an 80 day lay off, whereas he is 3-2-5 when he returns between 15 and 30 days.

Class

A horses class is often overlooked by the racing public. Statistically horses who are moving up in grade/class do not have a good strike rate, however the public will back it blindly if it sees it has won by 5 lengths in its previous race in a lower grade. Analyse past races to see if a horse has won or come close in the grade of race it is racing in today. You can discount a horse if it has failed 2 times at the grade when having all other conditions to suit except for when it is running for a new stable which has a good record at rejuvenating horses.

Also keep in mind that a horse who has placed in a black type race (i.e grade, 1,2,3) will have a more class than a horse who has a good winning record in Class 2 (B) handicaps, so if it is racing in a Class 2 handicap for the first time, do not discount just because it has never won a race.

3. Once you have created your shortlist based on the above criteria, you can now get down to the real dirty work of finding the eventual winner. Sometimes you might only be left with 1 horse, sometimes with 8, you must then start applying other filters to see if you can narrow down the list more. Sometimes the odds will allow to dutch 3 horses left if you can not narrow it down anymore. Then go for it as it is a plus EV move.

However be aware that every time you discount you must have a very valid reason backed up by a decent sample size. Here's a list of filters to reduce the shortlist.

Weight

Some horses as stated earlier have a bigger frame then others, therefore having top weight doesn't make much difference to them, whereas the smaller horse will struggle. Again by studying previous races you will spot a pattern

OR

This is the official rating that the horse racing board's in house handicapper assigns to a horse to determine what weight it should carry in its next horse race. The OR is updated weekly, therefore you sometimes see trainers turn out a horse 3 times in a week to try and take advantage of this before the handicapper reassigns it a higher rating. For an excellent explanation of official hores racing handicapping see this article written by good friend Malcom Smith over at www.UKhorseracing.co.uk.

After a while, horses will reach their peak and start to hover around a certain OR mark. Therefore it will be unlikely that it will win if its OR mark is higher than its highest winning mark unless the horse is an improving progressive sort. But for older horses, this OR mark becomes more important and can be more relied upon.

Field Size

Some horses will not race unless they are covered in the pack, other horses need room otherwise they get into trouble during the race. The trick is to identify these type of horses. You will start to spot where some horses only win in races with less than 8 runners, but never figure in races with more than 12. You can safely assume that he needs the perfect ride in a big runner race but more than likely will not get that (This is when you can factor in the Jockeys ability to see if its ok to rule out this horse or not) The field size matters more in National Hunt, as some horses prefer seeing the jumps early/later and as they are pack animals prefer chasing a leader than actually leading

Seasonal

Alot of horses prefer to run in certain times of the year. This could be down to how a trainer prepares the horse over the course of the season and aims it to be at full fitness come March time for example, but other times horses just perform better in certain months. Again by looking at past patterns you will begin to spot these trends.

Trainer Statistics

8 years ago it was a very profitable trend to follow certain trainers at certain race tracks for certain race types. This edge has slowly eroded since the markets have caught on, however it still needs to be factored in when trying to finalise your short list.

Trainer - Jockey combinations

If you try and follow this blindly by backing winning Trainer-Jockey Combos, you will most likely end up with a loss. However it is a good tool to have when you are trying to reduce the shortlist as some stats are just too good to ignore.

Jockey Booking

This is actually a powerful indicator. However this again doesn't mean much if the horse doesn't first qualify for the 5 essential criteria above. Also if you only ever back horses with the top jockeys on board you are forgoing on EV as, the odds will drop on a horse with the likes of Ruby Walsh or Tony McCoy on board, but odds will still remain good on a horse if for example the jockey booking was Graham Lee, who is a very underrated performer. Look back over past races and see how the horse has performed under their guidance before. You will start to see profitable trends and indicators.

Gambling Stables

There are a few ways to do this. One is manually record stables where horses have been heavily backed and won. Another way is to look at a horses previous wins and see what the average odds were. The lower the winning odds, the bigger chance that the stable money only goes down when the horse has a good chance of winning (Kevin Ryan is an example of a gambling stable). The higher the odds, means the horse has won races that they weren't fully expecting to win and therefore less likely a gambling stable (Veneita Williams comes to mind here for being an honest stable).

Post Race Comments

This is often overlooked. If you see what trainers, jockeys and owners have said to the press after a horse has won (See the racing post website for all the comments), you can pick up some useful information which can help you lean one way or the other on a selection.

Pace of the race.

To understand the pace of the race you first need to figure out what is each horse's preferred running style. They can be broken down into front runners, prominent runners, Hold up horses. Here's is a fantastic article which details the breakdown of winning % of different horses running styles compared to the actual number of race entries of horses with different running styles.

It shows that you should really be concentrating on front running and prominent horses as it accounts for 65% of winners compared to being only 50% of entries in races. Front runners in particular account for 20% of winners even though they only supply 11% of runners in a race.

You can use this to your advantage once you get to know all of the different course types. By backing a front running horse that satisfies the 5 essential criteria on a race course which has a sharp track with a short run in, you have added a few % EV points to your selection.

Another factor here is analysing the previous 3 races the horse has ran in and check out the in running comments. Especially look at the horses who came placed or came outside the top 4 but were close near the end. Keep and eye out for comments like "finished strongly", "kept on well", "stayed on well", "kept on final furlong"and for other tidbits like "hampered" but then "finished strongly". These can point towards a horse who is on the upward curve and given the perfect conditions in the next race will have a very good chance of winning.

Another thing to factor in is if a race does not have any natural front runners, then the race will not be run at a true pace, therefore could throw up some very unusual results. It may mean that the horse who has the best speed on a flat track will win when it drives all out in the last furlong.

When the pace of the race is guaranteed, the classier horse which satisfies the essential criteria will more often than not win the race.

4. Resources

For 6 years, before getting lured into the world of Online Poker, I punted successfully on horse racing and I used the following resources

Ratings from ukhorseracing.co.uk.

The ratings are based upon advanced pure mathematics but are presented in a an easy to read pdf. The main feature in my view that sets this service apart from alot of pretenders is the 'Class' filter they derive using their mathematical approach. Fantastically accurate for Non Handicap graded races in both National Hunt and Flat racing in the both UK and Irish racing. They also have a great forum where you can exchange ideas with the other members and have recently introduced a Racing Bot where you plug in all your profitable racing systems and sit back and watch.

Stats and ratings from ukracestats.com

I only found this website 4 years into my sports betting career, and it was free for nearly 2 years after that. It is without doubt the biggest time saving tool when it comes to analysing a race using all the criteria and filters I have mentioned above in the article. The only negative is that they only cover UK horse racing.

Racing Post Website- Last year they introduced a subscription service and I suppose it was about time considering all the information that it provides. It is essential for anyone serious about racing. I used it to confirm my findings from the ratings and stats mentioned above.

At The Races Website - Good for watching previous races and offers different race analysis from the Racing Post. As far as I know this is still free.

I hope that after reading the above that you will now not just throw money blindly at the favourite when you have a punt on the horses. Put a bit of time and effort into the selection process and give yourself a +EV chance of winning.


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